The Brexit process gathers momentum

Muhammad Zamir writes for DOT : 
The last week of November and the important meeting on 25 November will be remembered in the historical evolution of Europe for its geo-strategic and economic implications. Final agreement on two documents were drafted and agreed to by negotiators from the UK and the EU within that period.
The first one termed as the withdrawal agreement, set out the terms of Brexit in the wake of a landmark June 2016 referendum. At 585 pages, it dealt with citizens’ rights, the mechanism pertaining to the controversial issue of preventing a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, and details on the length of Britain’s transition period, set to last from March 2019 until December 2020.
The second document related to a political declaration, an aspirational, non-legally binding text that sets out the terms of the future relationship between the EU and the UK over 26 pages. It deals with ambitions for a future trading relationship, as well as close ties on foreign policy, criminal justice, law enforcement, security and defence.
It is being hoped by both the EU and UK that the mutually agreed to political declaration will be the basis for a trade agreement, to be hammered out during a 21-month transition period that is due to kick-off after 29 March, 2019 and will last till 31 December, 2020.
The 585-page document also focuses on how much money the UK must pay to the EU as a settlement (often dubbed the divorce bill), details of the transition period and citizens’ rights. It also covers the so-called principle of “backstop”- a last-resort option to maintain an open border on the island of Ireland in the event the UK leaves the EU without securing a trade deal. This would avoid the need for bringing back physical border checks.
Some important observations about the proposed UK Brexit deal have been made by analysts..
The first relates to the financial settlement that the UK will need to pay to the EU to settle all of its obligations. This is expected to be at least £39 billion and it will have to be paid over a number of years as UK’s financial contribution towards the annual budget of the EU budget. This amount, as expected, has become a cause of controversy among many Brexit supporters in the UK.
The next point is regarding citizens’ rights. Efforts are underway so that UK citizens in the EU, and EU citizens in the UK, can- retain their residency and social security rights after Brexit. The negotiations are causing an enormous amount of anxiety as British citizens in other EU countries; still do not know whether they will be able to work across borders in the future.
Economists have also drawn attention to the continuing problem being faced with regard to Northern Ireland by the UK. They have noted that a long-term trade deal has to be agreed to by the end of 2020 to avoid a hard border and difficult customs relationship between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.
Another issue that is creating concern is rights associated with fishing. This relates to access to EU fishing in UK waters. It has been observed that fishing has been left out of plans for a single customs territory because several EU countries have objected about UK fish produce being allowed unimpeded access to EU markets, without any corresponding guarantee for EU fishing boats.
Legal practitioners have also drawn attention to the resolution of disputes. It is being pointed out that the UK will remain under the European Court of Justice (ECJ) jurisdiction during the period of transition and this might create difficulties in efforts to resolve a dispute through arbitration.
The next aspect that is continuing to draw attention is what future UK-EU relationship might be towards existing protocols pertaining to Gibraltar and British military bases in Cyprus. Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has already warned that Spain will oppose the Brexit agreement if the future status of Gibraltar is not clarified. This has led him to demand that Madrid should be able to directly negotiate with London in this regard. Theresa May has however reiterated that Gibraltar’s present controversial status is not likely to change.
CNN has noted that all 27 remaining European Union leaders, despite differing opinions, have signed off Britain’s Brexit agreement- the Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration with mixed emotions at a special summit in Brussels on 25 November – but the deal’s real test is yet to come. The process will now require the assent of the British Parliament and subsequent ratification by the European Parliament.
This debate within the Brexit matrix has led critics to express their concern that the UK, because of the latest Agreement might find itself in a situation where it will have to continue to follow EU rules for an indefinite time without having any say over them.
These proposals by the present British government however do not appear to have full support of all the political parties in the UK Parliament. The Labour and the Democratic Unionist Party (an ally of Mrs. May) have said they might vote against the withdrawal agreement. Some of May’s own Conservative MPs have opposed it and some Cabinet Ministers have also resigned over the proposed deal. Some, including Tony Blair, have also demanded that there should be a second referendum but there is no clear indication of this.
British Prime Minister Theresa May in her own way has tried to salvage Brexit. She has written a letter to the British public pleading for their support, as the EU is prepared to formally sign Brexit. In Brussels on 25 November, she has not only promised a “brighter future” for the UK after leaving the EU in 2019 but has assured that it will be “a moment of renewal and reconciliation for our whole country”.
The rest of the world including the EU leaders in Brussels will now have to wait and hope for the best.
Muhammad Zamir, a former Ambassador is an analyst specialized in foreign affairs, right to information and good governance. Email: muhammadzamir0@gmail.com