Labib Murshed writes for DOT :
Just few days ago US President Donald Trump ordered full and immediate withdrawal of all US troops stationed in Syria, declaring their complete victory over the physical caliphate of the Islamic State. The order came as a total surprise, but beyond that the biggest question is now, what is or are the reason(s) behind this sudden annunciation of withdrawal.
First of all if we give a look at the reasons behind this sudden declaration of troop’s withdrawal, the simplest answer isthe defeat of USA in the Syrian Civil War. USA joined the fray with the aim of toppling the Assad regime, but ended with the satisfaction of defeating ISIS’sphysical Caliphate, an entity which was not there to begin with when this war started. And to be more precise,USA lost this war in Syria long before this sudden move, the moment the Syrian Kurdish fighters under the banner of Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) became their only loyal ally there. Though SDF is a mix of ethnic Arab and Kurds, but Kurdish fighters are the one who dominate its ranks. And the reason USA lost this war prior to this move was Kurds (who are only 7-10 percent of the total Syrian population) with alliance with such small percent of Arab fighters will never be able to take down the Syrian regime, a chance USA created in 2015 when majority of the Syrian population both Sunni Arabs of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and Kurdish fighters were on their side. But everything changed with the emergence of ISIS, the consequent inception of Russian bombing and the entrance of Iran in the plot. A big percentage of the Sunni Arab fighters joined ISIS, weakening FSA. How that happened, that’s another story but the thing is this event gaveRussia the pretext to help the Assad regime. And to that aim Russia not only bombed ISIS but also took down most of the other Sunni Arab rebel strongholds, with USA being confused and not knowing what to do as the ideology of ISIS is a threat to the West as well. Eventually Kurdish fighters became the only loyal ally of the USA. But as most Sunni Arabs rebels don’t want to be the part of the Kurdish dominated SDF, this literally made the minorityKurdish fighters useless inmost of the Syrian territory and USA’s goal to subvert the Assad regime basically ended there. However, they kept their military presence in SDF controlled regions under the excuse of defeating ISIS but it was clearly visible that it had more to do with fighting the Assad regime and Iranian proxies from gaining more territory and influence, especially when Iran, one of the archenemies of US, is there now. But even in pursuit of that goal USA is now defeated with this latest declaration of troop’s withdrawal. And more interestingly the reason behind theirfinal defeat in Syria is not the Assad regime, neither Russia nor Iran, rather their NATO ally Turkey. The alliance with the Kurds causedsevere deteriorationof relation with their longtime ally Turkey, the country which hasa long direct border with Syria and supporting the US backed forces since the onset of the Syrian war, and eventually compelling USA to leave its last bastion in Syria.
The problems with Turkey began when the People’s Protection Units (YPG) of Kurdish Syrians, became aligned with SDF. YPG is designated as a terrorist group by Turkey due to its ties with the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK), a Kurdish group in Turkey which has carried out insurgency in southeast Turkey and designated as a terrorist group by both USA and Turkey. Turkey has direct border with SDF/YPG controlled areas and YPG’s ties with PKK have created internal security threats for Turkey. But the presence of the US troops in the SDF/YPG controlled region was precluding Turkey from taking any measure against them and rather caused heightening of tensions between the USA and Turkey. Turkey accused USA for not removing these anti-Turkey groups from northern Syria. The US-Turkey relationship was already impaired after the 2016 military coup attempt as many of the coup orchestrators alleged by Turkey arecurrently in USA. The relations further strained when Turkey detained a US pastor accused of collaborating in the same coup attempt andfinalized to buy S400system from Russia.
But even after this deterioration of their relationship, the fact is, Turkey is still one of the important allies of USA geostrategically, militarily and economicallyin the Middle East. Though in recent times Turkey is maintaining good relations with both Iran and Russia, two of USA’s regional adversaries, they still have some serious disagreements,especially in the Syrianconflict. Hence, from the US perspective if the options are to choose between Turkey and the Kurdish fighters of YPG/SDF, even if Turkey isn’t as loyal as them to the USA, but still has way much to offer from military, economic andgeostrategicaspects. USA still has an important air base in Turkey’s Incirlik.
Hence, what we can see here is a minor interest i.e. Kurdish SDF/YPG fighters may led toward losing bigger interest i.e. Turkey for the USA. Turkey, on the other hand, is making her moves in cautious ways, they have already released the US pastor but again kept threatening that if USA doesn’t do anything to remove YPG, they will do it themselves. And finally, probably the breakthrough came after Turkey agreeing to buy $3.5 billion Patriotdefense system from the USA, the news which came just after USA declaring its withdrawal. As Turkey will get S400 defensesystem anyway, giving them the upper hand in the Patriot deal, for USA leaving their Kurdish alliesand letting Turkey have what they want in Manbij and northeastern Syria is the best option right now.This will at least secure abillion dollars deal with Turkeybefore leaving Syria. Turkey has already began to amass theirtroops andFSA rebels near Manbij forOperation Euphrates Shield to remove the YPG/SDF Kurdish fighters.Theyhave probably also appeasedthe USA for buying S400 with this new deal.
Writer – Labib Murshed, Research Assistant (International Affairs), Bangladesh Institute of Lawand International Affairs (BILIA)