Hossen Sohel of DOT
The ruling Awami League will win somewhere between 168 and 220 seats on its own, says Sajeeb Wazed Joy, an adviser to Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, reports bdnews24.com.
Sajeeb, son of Hasina, has posted the party’s election outlook on his Facebook page citing an opinion poll conducted from August to October by the Research and Development Center.
The Awami League’s margin of victory will be even greater than in the 2008 election, he said.
For the latest poll, pollsters interviewed more than 51,000 registered voters in 51 constituencies. That means a minimum of 1,000 voters per constituency.
The 51 constituencies were selected from a mathematical analysis of all national election results from 1991 to 2008.
These constituencies are the ones where voters switched parties the most. “These were the constituencies that our party was most concerned with,” Sajeeb said.
The poll could not cover candidates as it was prior to nominations.
On a party basis, the Awami League leads in all 51, with the smallest lead 12.2 percent in Joypurhat-1 and the widest lead 75 percent in Barishal-4.
The smallest undecided vote is 2.5 percent in Tangail-3 where the AL lead is 41.5 percent and the largest is 19.8 percent in Shatkhira-3 where the AL lead is 64.7 percent, far above the undecided vote, Sajeeb said, citing the polling data.
The average AL vote is 66 percent to BNP’s 19.9 percent, with an average 8.6 percent undecided. The AL margin is again far above the undecided vote.
“More importantly, there are no constituencies where the BNP is within a 10 percent margin of the AL,” Sajeeb said. On in two seats, the BNP is within a 20 percent margin of the AL, he added.