Iraqi Kurdistan Independence Referendum 2017

Sultan Muhammad Akash, Founder & CEO,Www.LawWar.Win – Right Lawyer, Right Here : 
Nearly a century ago with the fall of the Great Ottoman Empire, the Kurdish people have been dispersed into 4 sovereign nations, where they have had uneasy relationships with the central rulers. Throughout the 20th century, the Kurds have been marginalized and persecuted, particularly in Iraq and Turkey. The nations they inhabit can not allow an independent Kurdistan to exist, for its existence would threaten theirs. Yet, the civil wars in the Middle East as well as the presence of ISIS, has put forth new challenges but also new opportunities for the Kurds. On September 25th, the Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq will conduct a referendum on independence. Whatever the results may be, the vote is likely to enrage tensions in the Middle East. Iraqi Kurdistan’s independence referendum may seem like the culmination of a century long dream. If it were to happen, the outcome would be clear. But why the independent Kurdistan would be WRONG despite of USA’s direct support?
The problem is determining what is Kurdistan. The world recognizes Erbil, Sulaymaniyah, and Dohuk as Kurdish, but the referendum includes other areas claimed by the Iraqis. That means an immediate fight over borders. Then there’s the economy. Though USA donated 451 million dollars to Kurdish Military Forces, known as ەگرەمشێپ Peshmerga in 2016 and promised to continue supporting; Kurdistan as a nation is twenty billion dollars in debt. It has less oil than the rest of Iraq, and landlocked, it would be at its neighbors mercy. After independence, it will not only lose its 17 percent claim to Iraq’s revenues, but Baghdad will also demand it pay a share of Iraq’s debt. Simply put, it’s not going to be able to pay its teachers, doctors, soldiers, and bureaucrats. Kurdistan has the ranked significantly low in education & medication industry, most importantly food security – meaning, possibly they could face famine shortly after independence.
The biggest problem will be its neighbors. Both Turkey and Iran fear the precedent independence would have upon their own Kurdish minorities. Iran can destabilize its new neighbor, and Turkey can send in troops. Political divisions among the Kurdish Peshmerga further undermine hope for stability.
Even though USA is on the same boat with Kurds today, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party or PKK (Kurdish: Partiya Karkerên Kurdistanê) was funded by the Soviet Union against EU & NATO, establishing an independent Marxist-Leninist in the Arab Region. Not only PKK but also YPG, Peshmerga – all are left wing communist organisations. So here’s the question for Trump administration in Washington.
Americans might sympathize with Kurdish aspirations, but will America fund and fight for them in the long run? Even if America continues to support for a really long term, what form of government the Independent Kurdistan likely to adopt?
I suspect it would end up being the Kurdish equivalent of a Baathist dictatorship. Barzani and his sons will not relinquish power. Indeed, Barzani’s term as president expired two years ago. The security forces are in the hands of political parties, not the state. I don’t expect any magic transformation and the independent state of Kurds likely to be a failed state before 2028, unless the Kurd’s make significant progress to connect with China’s belt & silk road.