Ambassador Muhammad Zamir writes for DOT
The middle of December has seen a robust performance by India’s Congress Party in a few key State elections in India. The Congress ended up winning in the States of Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh and barely missed a majority in Madhya Pradesh in a neck-and-neck finish. Prime Minister Narendra Modi subsequently congratulated the opposition “for their victories”, saying his party accepts “the people’s mandate with humility”. This response was indeed praiseworthy. It however left behind a serious question as to whether the ruling party- BJP needs to be worried about the evolving Indian political paradigm as India approaches its next national Parliamentary elections in 2019. It has also raised the question not only as to whether Congress’s robust performance has been a shot in the arm for the party but also whetherCongress, India’s Grand Old Party is finally back in the reckoning?
Amy Kazmin of the ‘Financial Times’ has made certain important observations in this regard- “the elections in the northern States where the BJP won 61 of the combined 65 parliamentary seats in the 2014 national elections, are considered an important gauge of voter sentiment ahead of the 2019 elections.” However “rather than reinforcing the BJP’s political command, the polls in Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh suggest a new surge in support for Congress” that was being considered as “being in steep decline”.
The BJP won 62 of the 65 seats in these three key states in the last parliamentary elections. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are also part of a bellwether region – the Hindi-speaking heartland of India – which gave the BJP and its allies 203 of the 225 seats that they won in 2014.
So the Congress’s robust performance – it gained 163 assembly seats here since 2013 state polls – is being regarded as a shot in the arm for the party ahead of the national general election due in May 2019. It will boost the morale of Congress party workers, make it more acceptable to skeptical regional allies, and also enhance the image of its leader Rahul Gandhi.
The Congress party has formed governments in the state of Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan (where it secured majority) and also where it emerged as the single largest party-Madhya Pradesh state (on the basis of an alliance with regional parties). Regional parties won in two other smaller states that also voted – Telangana in the south and Mizoram in the northeast. The Telangana Rashtra Samithi registered a thumping victory in Telangana state while in Mizoram the Mizo National Front trounced the Congress party. The results came as a shot in the arm for Rahul Gandhi, President of the Congress party, who is trying to forge a broad alliance with regional groups.
The BJP has however, said that the State results would not affect its prospects in the general elections. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has remarked to ANI news agency that BJP leadership and cadres would “pause and analyze the results and then “take corrective steps” that may be required before the polls. It has already been reported that Prime Minister Modi is likely to announce loan waivers worth billions of US Dollars to woo millions of angry farmers ahead of the general elections next year.
Analysts also believe that the verdict is indicative that people are now slightly reluctant in agreeing with the Hindutva (Hindu nationalism) ideology. In this context political analyst Sajjan Singh has mentioned that “In the past five years, a vast section of people across caste, region and religion realized that they have got nothing. There are no jobs and development”. The Modi government’s decision to ban high denomination currency notes and controversial implementation of a federal Goods and Services Tax (GST) last year, has also been seen by some as “a suicidal move”, which has brought “unimagined difficulties upon the cash-based rural and informal sector economy which sustains a large part of the Indian society” .
Soutik Biswas of BBC has however drawn attention to an important postulate. He has observed that one of the BJP’s greatest strengths is having capable leaders in several states, many of whom have completed more than one term. Hobbled by dynastic politics, the Congress on the other hand appears to have failed to groom young local leaders, and have depended mainly on the charisma of the Gandhi family.
These factors will require the Congress to have a more powerful counter-narrative to the BJP. Political analyst Gilles Verniers has noted that Congress should understand that counting on anti-incumbency alone might not work in the future. The Congress supporters need to understand that development outcome will also play a significant role. Other analysts have however noted in this context that Rahul Gandhi, Congress leader, has already attributed his Party’s general success to the growing unease among the unemployed Indian youth population and the farmers with regard to their future economic prospects.
One thing is however abundantly clear. The 2019 general elections will be a referendum on Mr Modi. In 2014, Mr Modi swept to power in what was an overwhelming verdict for change. Some of his critics believe that he has frittered away some of that support. They are interpreting this from statements being made by some in the BJP leadership, where their rhetoric has moved from the politics of hope to the politics of grievance, mostly blaming the Congress for the country’s ills.
Nonetheless, some analysts have observed that the BJP’s stridently majoritarian politics has fanned hate in certain quarters and left the country divided. Some of India’s important institutions like the federal investigation agency CBI and the central bank have also been roiled by controversies, prompting many to believe that their independence has been eroded. In fact, a day before the results were due, the Central Bank governor Urjit Patel, unexpectedly resigned.
One may conclude with the view that failure to offer an alternative narrative of hope to the people will make it difficult for the Congress and its fractious allies to mount a credible challenge to Mr Modi.
Muhammad Zamir, a former Ambassador is an analyst specialized in foreign affairs, right to information and good governance, can be reached at <muhammadzamir0@gmail.com>
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