Dr. Forqan Uddin Ahmed writes for DOT :
Many scientists believe human beings may be causing something dangerous – climate changes over the coming century much severe than any since the dawn of civilization. The principal change to date is in the balance of gases that form the Earth’s atmosphere. These naturally occurring ‘greenhouse gases’ including carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and water vapor keep ground temperatures at a global average of 15ºC. Without this natural blanket, Earth’s surface would be about 30ºC colder than it is today, making the planet a freezing, barren, lifeless place similar to Mars.
The greenhouse gases keep the surface warm because as incoming solar radiation strikes Earth, the surface gives off infrared radiation, or heat, that the gases temporarily trap and keep near ground label. The effect is comparable to the way a greenhouse traps heat.
The problem is that human activity may be making the greenhouse gas blanket “thicker”. For example, burning fossil fuel throws huge amount of CO2 in the air, the destruction of forest allows carbon stood in the trees to escape into the atmosphere; and other activities such as raising cattle and planting rice emit methane, nitrous oxide and other greenhouse gases. Until mankind began burning fossil fuels, greenhouse gases that occur naturally remained in relative balance. But the beginning of the industrial revolution in Britain ushered in rapid industrialization that greatly increased man’s assault on the ecology.
The World Energy Council and independent research organization reported in 1997 that the global emissions of CO2 increased by 12% between 1990 and 1995. According to the IPCC, if emissions continue to grow at current rates it is almost certain that atmospheric levels of CO2 will double from preindustrial levels during the 21st Century. The most direct result of such an increase, the panel predicts, is likely to be a global warming of 1 to 3.5ºC over the next 100 years, a rise that is largest and probably faster than any such change over the past 9,000 years.
In December 1997, government representatives signed a global climate change treaty in Kyoto, Japan to reverse the rise in greenhouse gas emission from human activities, which would eventually check the increase in temperature. Reducing emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases not only would mean burning less fossil fuel for industry and transportation but also curbing deforestation, a process that adds to the excess CO2 by destroying trees absorb the gas. CO2 also is released when wood is burned. But according to some, such steps threaten to undermine economic growth and even destroy entire industries if undertaken too quickly.
Unfortunately, there is not much encouraging news on combating climate change. While signatories to the Paris Agreement met twice since December 2015, progress on its implementation and finance has been slow, and emissions of carbon show no signs of leveling off. Between 2014–16, for three years, emissions remained steady at over 32.1 metric gigatons of CO2 each year, but now appear to be rising again.“Three years without emissions growth is notable, but it needs to be turned into a decline,” said Glen Peters, a senior researcher at the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo in Norway.
It is too early to judge whether the cause of combating climate change has advanced or experienced a setback since the Paris Accord was signed over two years ago. At the global level, there is no doubt that public awareness has increased, and scientific progress in the realm of clean energy and emissions control has been phenomenal. Price of solar panels, electric cars, and renewable energy has come down steadily. However, at the same time, the pace of economic growth and demand for energy is again drawing on low-cost sources including coal-powered power plants. While global awareness of the perils of climate change is high and environmental activism is growing in every nook and corner, these two forces of dynamism have hit the hard wall of reality, represented by renewed global economic uptick. I call this the tug of war between activism vs reality.
The challenges for the coming years are tremendous, but not insurmountable. Countries must remain committed to the principle of Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to reduce carbon emissions. Some environmental groups have also suggested that OECD countries, i.e. large, developed countries that have created the current problem, need to keep their side of the bargain, even if the developing countries are falling behind.
The writer is a former Deputy Director General and Commandant, Ansar VDP Academy